Trump’s Unique Approach
Former President Trump is leading the pack of Republican presidential contenders in Iowa, despite eschewing the traditional campaign methods. While other candidates are busy attending rallies, holding town halls, and meeting with voters, Trump has spent minimal time in the state. Yet, he holds a significant lead in recent polls. Trump’s celebrity status and his position as a former president contribute to his advantage, allowing him to bypass the usual campaign rules.
Potential Risks
Trump’s unconventional strategy does carry risks. He lost the Iowa caucuses in 2016 to Texas Senator Ted Cruz, who had a better-organized campaign. If candidates like Nikki Haley or Ron DeSantis can pull off an upset or come in a close second, it may raise questions about Trump’s decision-making abilities. This could have implications for future nominating contests in other states.
A “Quasi-Incumbent Campaign”
Although Trump avoids town halls and direct voter interaction, his campaign is running what experts call a “quasi-incumbent campaign.” They have a well-organized ground game that can mobilize supporters to caucus. Trump’s team can accomplish a lot without him, which sets him apart from other candidates. His unique political persona and widespread popularity enable him to dominate the race with minimal personal effort.
Trump’s Limited Time in Iowa
Trump has held just 16 events in Iowa in this presidential contest. In contrast, DeSantis has visited voters in all 99 counties, a feat known as the “full Grassley,” named after Senator Charles E. Grassley. Haley has held over 50 events in the state, and Vivek Ramaswamy has surpassed both DeSantis and Haley in terms of campaign events. Trump’s rivals emphasize their efforts to connect with Iowans as a reason to support them over the former president.
Trump’s Poll Numbers
Despite his limited campaign presence, Trump leads his Republican rivals by over 30 percentage points in Iowa polls. His lead in national polls is even higher. Many experts predicted that the anti-Trump vote would consolidate as the field narrowed, but instead, his support has only grown stronger. A recent survey showed Trump with the support of 51% of likely Iowa Republican caucus attendees, an increase of 8 percentage points since October.
Trump’s Call to Action
While Trump enjoys a significant lead, he continues to urge his supporters to turn out for the caucuses. He recognizes the importance of a large margin of victory. Trump’s ability to command overwhelming support without extensive campaigning is due to his backers’ focus on his persona rather than policy. They see him as a victim of political persecution, which only strengthens their loyalty.
The Importance of Organization
To ensure victory in the actual caucuses, Trump’s supporters must turn out on a cold winter night. While Governor DeSantis has a significant operation in Iowa and former Ambassador Haley is gaining organizational support, Trump remains the wild card. His national campaign is more professional and organized than in 2016. They have detailed data about his supporters in the state and are actively reaching out to them. However, Trump’s ability to defy logic and his overwhelming media presence make it difficult to predict the outcome.