Positive Step towards Avoiding War in Asia
In a world filled with conflicts in Gaza and Ukraine, it is a relief when two superpowers take a step back from escalating tensions that could lead to another war in Asia. This is exactly what happened when President Biden and China’s Xi Jinping met at a country estate in the ridges west of Silicon Valley. The meeting marked the end of a year of frosty noncommunication between the two leaders, which was triggered by various incidents, including China’s suspected espionage balloon crossing into US airspace. The meeting between Biden and Xi signifies a willingness to bury some of their differences, as both leaders recognize that another crisis is the last thing they need right now.
China’s Changing Image and Biden’s Motives
China’s stock has been falling, both literally and figuratively. Its once-powerful economy has slowed down significantly, with a growth rate of only 5%. Foreign investors are pulling their money out of the country, creating a reversal of the long-standing trend. Additionally, China’s aggressive behavior in the Taiwan Strait and the South China Sea has caused other countries to align themselves with the United States, further damaging China’s image as a bully. Xi Jinping seems to have realized the need to soften China’s image and position it as a partner rather than an adversary.
President Biden also aims to reduce tensions, especially with his focus on the upcoming presidential election. Dealing with a third foreign policy crisis, in addition to the situations in Gaza and Ukraine, is not something he desires. While he may not receive much credit from voters for easing tensions with China, he hopes to gain points if Xi Jinping delivers on his promise to cut off the supply of chemicals used in fentanyl production.
Promising Concessions and Skepticism
During the meeting, Xi Jinping agreed to reopen talks between the military leaders of both countries, establishing a “red line” for communication in emergencies such as near-collisions in the waters and airspace surrounding Taiwan. China also agreed to cooperate with the United States on climate change and engage in discussions about the risks associated with artificial intelligence in military systems. These concessions indicate a charm offensive by Xi Jinping, but China watchers remain skeptical about the extent to which Beijing will follow through on its promises.
Bonnie Glaser, a China scholar at the German Marshall Fund, believes it is too early to celebrate the meeting’s outcomes. While China may take some action to prevent military accidents, Glaser doubts they will eliminate all risks for the US military operating near their coastline. The true test will be whether China fulfills its specific promises, such as reducing the supply of fentanyl ingredients or participating in joint military conferences.
Looking Beyond Small Steps
While these small steps are important, the larger question is whether they will lead to significant developments, such as cooperation on nuclear arms control or peace efforts in Gaza and Ukraine. The Biden administration aims to demonstrate that intense competition and cooperation with China can coexist. These agreements have created opportunities for the two countries to showcase their ability to collaborate in certain areas. However, it is crucial to note that no visible progress was made on the major issues that divide the two nations, particularly their military standoffs over Taiwan and the South China Sea. These fundamental differences cannot be easily resolved through military dialogues or actions on fentanyl.
Striving for Stability
While breakthroughs in superpower relationships are rare, the ultimate test lies in whether collisions can be avoided and, if they do occur, managed more effectively than past conflicts. The recent meeting between Biden and Xi marks a positive step towards stability, even if major breakthroughs were not achieved. Both leaders understand the importance of preventing a crisis and maintaining a level of stability in their relationship. As the world watches, it remains to be seen whether these small steps will pave the way for greater cooperation or simply serve as temporary measures for managing tensions.